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04-03-2024

EURUSD clings to mild losses below 1.0770, investors await Eurozone inflation, US PMI data.

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  • EUR/USD trades softer around 1.0765 despite the softer US Dollar. 

 

  • Futures traders expect the US Fed to start easing in the June meeting. 

 

  • The German HICP figure rose 2.3% YoY in March, its lowest level since June 2021. 

 

The EURUSD pair clings to mild losses near 1.0765 after bouncing off the multi-week lows near 1.0720 on Wednesday. The weaker US Dollar Index (DXY) below the 105.00 mark provided some support to the major pair. However, the softer German inflation data on Tuesday weighs on the Euro as it has triggered the speculation of rate cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB). Investors await the advanced Eurozone inflation data for March and the US ISM Services PMI for fresh impetus. 

 

The dovish comments from many Federal Reserve (Fed) officials weigh on the Greenback. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Tuesday that she expects rate cuts this year, but ruled out the next policy meeting in May. Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, stated she thinks three rate cuts in 2024 seem "reasonable,"  but she needs more convincing evidence to confirm it. Futures traders anticipate the US Fed to start easing in the June meeting and to cut by three-quarters of a percentage point by the end of the year.  

 

German inflation eased slightly more than expected in March, the lowest in almost three years, the German statistics office Destatis reported on Tuesday. The preliminary German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose 0.6% MoM in March, slightly below the estimation of a 0.7% MoM rise. The year-on-year rate of HICP rose 2.3%, below the market consensus of 2.4%. The softer inflation indicated Germany is nearing the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2%, raising market hopes for an imminent interest rate cut. This, in turn, exerts some selling pressure on the Euro (EUR) and creates a headwind for the EUR/USD pair. 

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