Max Leverage


Minimum Deposit




Client Service


Segregated Client Fund


Trade on Spreads from 0.0 pips. No requotes. Trade with our diverse and deep liquidity

An extensive range of markets

Trade Majors, Minors and Exotics, Forex, Spot Metals and Energy, Indices and ASX-listed Stocks, Hong Kong Stocks and US Stocks in one BCR Account.

Commodity CFDs

Trade Gold, Silver, Brent and WTI Oils with BCR. A customized mini contract is available for Silver.

Share CFDs

Trade Hong Kong, Australian and the U.S. shares with leverage. Through our diversified liquidity partners, BCR is able to bring market depth directly from HKEX, ASX and CBOE.

Index CFDs

BCR offers multiple CFD products covering major stock market indices from the UK and Europe, APAC and the U.S.


Trade 40+ Majors, Minors and Exotics with BCR, and benefit from our competitive spreads, $2.50 commission per side and up to 30:1 leverage.

Metals CFDs

Take a glance at our competitive spreads for Gold and Silver trade with BCR.

Trade at Will with Just One Tap

Customized MetaTrader 4 and MetaTrader 5 from BCR have all the powerful tools that you need to trade on both Windows and mobile devices.








Why trade CFDs with BCR


BCR is proud of our 15+ years of commitment to the CFD industry as an Australian-regulated investment firm in Australia since 2008 (AFSL No. 328794).


As a client of BCR, all of your funds on deposit with BCR are fully segregated from Company Funds and held with a top-tier Australian bank.


BCR is your best choice of intra-day traders, scalpers, copytrade, and robots.


Our dedicated client support team is available 24/5, and our premium account managers have even more availability.

Marketing News & Analysis

Ahead of the Trend - Never Miss Opportunities

Daily Recommendation 29 Sep 2023

Published at 09-29-2023

US Dollar Index


On Thursday, September 28th, the latest economic data released in the United States showed mixed performance: the US economy maintained a relatively strong growth rate in the second quarter, remaining unchanged at 2.1%; initial jobless claims for the week ending September 23rd increased by 2,000 people but remained at a low level; US existing home sales in August plummeted by a significant 7.1%, marking the largest decline in nearly a year. Meanwhile, there were new developments regarding the government shutdown and the impeachment of President Biden. The US Dollar Index, which had been strong in recent days, reversed from its high and fell just above the 106 level.


As US bond yields continued to rise, the US dollar remained stable above 106.00, reaching a 10-month high of 106.83. Since the Federal Reserve meeting last week, the market has been overshadowed by the stance of "keeping high interest rates for a longer period," causing risk assets and US dollar-denominated assets to be in a state of turmoil. The potential risk of a US government shutdown and the deteriorating global economic data suggest a possible slowdown in growth, providing additional support for the US dollar. As the attractiveness of the US dollar as a safe haven increases, the high-interest rates associated with holding the US dollar will continue to drive its appreciation. The uncertainty surrounding the Chinese real estate industry also contributes further to the US dollar's safe-haven appeal. Over the past four years, the US dollar has appreciated against currencies from Eastern Europe, Western Europe, and emerging markets. All indications suggest that this trend will continue.


From a daily chart perspective, the US Dollar Index broke above the important previous resistance of 105.88 and further crossed 106.00 (the PowerShift Central Pivot Line) to reach the 10-month high of 106.83. Currently, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) of the US Dollar Index is in overbought territory. However, due to the continued strength of the US dollar, any technical retracements are short-lived. The current macroeconomic backdrop is expected to continue to support the US dollar. In addition, on the daily chart, the 20-day moving average (106.23) crossed above the 300-day moving average (105.98) from below, forming a bullish "golden cross" pattern. From a technical perspective, this is a sign of accumulating upward momentum. It is expected that next week, the US Dollar Index may target 107.20 and 107.99 (last November's high). On the downside, significant support levels to watch include the previous high in March at 105.88 and 106.00 (a psychological market level and the PowerShift Central Pivot Line). If these supports are breached to the downside, more downside risk may be triggered towards the 105.40 level (lower channel line).


Today, it may be considered to short the US Dollar Index near 106.35, with a stop-loss at 106.50 and targets at 105.85 and 105.75.



WTI Crude Oil


On Thursday, September 28th, the market expected major Western economies to maintain high interest rates to combat stubborn inflation, which led to a decline in crude oil prices. The situation in the US Cushing region's crude oil inventories was critical. Midweek, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released inventory data for the week ending September 22nd, showing a larger-than-expected drop in EIA crude oil inventories. Commercial crude oil inventories, excluding strategic reserves, decreased by 2.169 million barrels to 416 million barrels, a decrease of 0.52%, against an expectation of -320,000 barrels. WTI crude oil benefited from this and surged by 3.14% to a daily high of $93.23, hitting a new high of over a year since the end of August 2022. Concerns in the market include the start of the fall maintenance season and the decline in gasoline profit margins, which could lead to a slowdown in refinery capacity. A decrease in supply will push oil prices further upward, but with the continued rise in energy prices, consumers will face greater pressure, potentially leading to an economic slowdown. Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in September, both European and American stock markets have experienced significant corrections. It is foreseeable that as inflation rebound risks increase in the second half of the year and interest rates remain high for a longer period, European and American stock markets will face further downward pressure. If high interest rates eventually lead to larger-scale financial risks, it is expected to limit the upward potential of oil prices.


WTI crude oil experienced a back-and-forth battle around the $90 level after the bulls and bears contended, ultimately choosing an upward direction, with the bulls currently in control in the short term. At this stage, it is in a strong uptrend with two pivotal points, and it is not advisable to prematurely call a top. From a medium-term perspective, the break above $92.23 in WTI crude oil indicates that the medium-term trend has turned positive, and it is expected that WTI crude oil will subsequently form its third pivotal point near $96 (the upper channel line) since the low in May. There is a possibility of challenging the $100 level. In the short term, on the downside, consideration can be given to $90.00 (a psychological market level), with attention to $88.78 (the 20-day moving average) if it is breached.


Today, it may be considered to go long on crude oil near $90.40, with a stop-loss at $90.00 and targets at $91.90 and $92.20.




Spot Gold


Due to the continued rise in the US dollar and US Treasury yields, pressure has been mounting on this non-yielding metal. On Thursday, gold prices showed weakness, falling to their lowest level in nearly six months at $1,857.80. Against the backdrop of rising US Treasury yields and increasing investment risks, gold prices hit a new cyclical low midweek. The surge in US Treasury yields and the threat of a US government shutdown exacerbated the already deteriorating sentiment, pushing gold prices lower. Gold extended its decline for the fourth consecutive trading day, as bets on the Federal Reserve's continued maintenance of high interest rates eroded its attractiveness. Investors are now turning their attention to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge and is set to be released on Friday. Expectations for US interest rates have prompted investors to seek refuge in the US dollar, making gold more expensive for overseas buyers. US bond yields also remain near 16-year highs, further dampening investor interest in gold. As long as rates remain high for an extended period, they will continue to pressure precious metals. Additionally, gold prices breaking below the psychological level of $1,900 triggered technical selling. If inflation data continues to strengthen, it will be another factor continuing to weigh on gold prices.


Gold prices failed to hold above the $1,950-$1,953 range after testing it before and after the Federal Reserve's rate decision, and they have once again breached the support zone around $1,930-$1,931, attracting further short interest and accelerating the decline below $1,900. The behavior at the end of the converging pattern becomes crucial. In the overall situation, the market remains cautious. There are not enough conditions for a short-term reversal, so the risk of a decline towards $1,800 is very high. Yesterday, it broke below the crucial level of $1,870.20 (the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of the move from $1,804.80 to $2,081.90). The downside risk has sharply increased. Once the break below $1,970 is confirmed, the bears will target $1,859.20 (the 300-day moving average) and $1,849.30 (the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the move from $1,616.80 to $2,081.90), with the next level being the psychological level of $1,800. In the short term, there may be a potential for a bottom around $1,859.20-$1,849.30, but the strength of any rebound in this bearish trend is uncertain. If there is a stabilization above these support levels for several consecutive trading days, then the focus can shift to a potential rebound aiming to reclaim $1,900, which would further strengthen if it reaches $1,910.60 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the move from $1,804.80 to $2,081.90). In summary, if gold cannot rebound above $1,930-$1,931, it still faces significant downside risk.


Today, it may be considered to go long on gold around $1,862, with a stop-loss at $1,858, and targets at $1,875 and $1,878.






On Thursday, September 28th, Australia's retail sales for August were reported to have grown by approximately 1.5% year-on-year and by approximately 0.2% month-on-month. The lackluster growth in August retail sales reflects consumers becoming more cautious about purchasing non-essential items in the context of high inflation. On Wednesday, September 27th, Australia's August Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, ending the trend of continuous declines over the past three months. Australia's August CPI also showed a month-on-month increase of 0.8%, surpassing July's 0.3%. There is no doubt that the resurgence of inflation in Australia in August has increased the likelihood of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raising interest rates at its decision next Tuesday (October 3rd). In contrast, the US economy is more resilient, which has led the market to bet that the Federal Reserve still has further room to raise interest rates to combat inflation. After the Fed's September rate decision, market expectations for rate cuts in 2024 were lowered by 50 basis points, and the 10-year US Treasury yield benefited from this, reaching 4.64% this week, its highest level in 15 years since October 2007. Meanwhile, the widening interest rate differential between the US and Australia implies that the overall downtrend of the Australian Dollar/US Dollar has not been reversed.


The daily chart shows that the Australian Dollar/US Dollar has been in a downtrend since 2021. From a trend analysis perspective, this downtrend is still ongoing. It has experienced two central extensions and one central expansion during this period, indicating that the Australian Dollar/US Dollar may not have truly bottomed out yet. The future trend tends to further decline to 0.6272, the November 2022 low, and a breach could test the previous low at 0.6170 (October low). In the short term, the Australian Dollar/US Dollar is consolidating around 0.6400, but the bears currently have the upper hand. If the exchange rate cannot effectively recover above 0.6485 and 0.6522 levels, the downside risk for the Australian Dollar/US Dollar will increase further.


Today, it may be considered to go long on the Australian Dollar near 0.6405, with a stop-loss at 0.6375 and targets at 0.6470 and 0.6475.






Recent data shows that the situation of UK businesses in September is worse than expected, with increasing risks of unemployment and economic recession. Market sentiment suggests that the Bank of England has already completed its interest rate hikes in the face of economic deterioration and cooling inflation in the UK. The downward revision in expectations for the terminal interest rate highlights the unfavorable factors for the British Pound. This Friday, the UK will also release data such as consumer credit and mortgage approvals. If the data continues to show weakness, it is likely to further weigh on the British Pound, causing GBP/USD to slide even further. In the next stages, the British Pound is unlikely to break free from its ongoing downward trend unless there is surprising news of economic growth in the UK.


From a technical perspective, the British Pound against the US Dollar is still constrained by the downtrend resistance line that began in July, extending from the high of 1.3143. It is currently around the 1.2470 level, and there are currently no signs of breaking free from the weak downward trend. The exchange rate needs to decisively break through this zone to have a tendency for a bottoming rebound. The nearest resistance levels are estimated at the 10-day and 250-day moving averages at 1.2266 and 1.2309, respectively. Currently, the 10-day and 250-day moving averages are forming a "death cross," so the British Pound would need to slide to 1.2078 (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the move from 1.0354 to 1.3143) to find its first support level, with key references at 1.2010 (March 15th low) and 1.2000 (psychological market level).


Today, it is suggested to go long on the British Pound near 1.2168, with a stop-loss at 1.2135 and targets at 1.2250 and 1.2270.






In the early Asian session yesterday, the US Dollar/Japanese Yen pair dipped slightly to around 149.30, with the bulls maintaining their strength, briefly approaching the 150 handle. Once this threshold is crossed, it implies that the Bank of Japan is very likely to intervene in the foreign exchange market, or even take more significant actions to address the depreciation of the Japanese Yen. There is a divergence in the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, and a tug-of-war between hawks and doves is underway. From a technical analysis perspective, the 150 level could make traders more cautious. Although the threat of intervention always exists, the continued depreciation of the Japanese Yen is an undeniable fact, and the dovish monetary policy outlook of the Bank of Japan continues to resonate with the hawkish bets of the Federal Reserve. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has stated that wage growth and demand-driven inflation are needed to move away from negative interest rates. While the Japanese Yen still faces pressure, intervention to boost the yen could come at the 150 level, and the threat of intervention may limit the upside potential before the US session.


From a technical perspective, the US Dollar/Japanese Yen broke above the upper resistance line of the "ascending wedge" (149.00) and reached a high of 149.70, reaffirming the bullish price signal seen since October of the previous year. If the US Dollar returns to 150 against the Japanese Yen, it will support a move towards the previous resistance high at 151.94. However, falling below 149 will bring into play the support levels at 148.45 (lower support line of the ascending wedge) and the 14-day moving average at 148.05, with selling pressure potentially intensifying towards the level below 147.13 (30-day moving average). The current resistance levels are expected to be 150 (psychological market round number) and 151.94 (high from October of the previous year).


Today, it is suggested to go short on the US Dollar near 149.60, with a stop-loss at 149.90 and targets at 148.50 and 148.30.






Midweek, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury continued to rise, reaching its highest level since October 2007. Consequently, investors continue to bet that the US economy will outperform its competitors in a high-interest-rate environment, driving sustained buying pressure on the US Dollar. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) indicated midweek that the year-on-year growth in lending to the corporate sector in August was only 0.6%, lower than the 2.22% growth in July, and lending to households also slowed from 1.3% to 1%. Increasing evidence suggests that the ECB's historic rate hikes are restraining economic activity. Therefore, the ECB's room for further rate hikes is likely to become extremely limited. In terms of interest rate differentials and economic growth prospects, the Euro appears to be at a disadvantage relative to the US Dollar. The current trading of this currency pair is likely to enter a short-term minor adjustment pattern while continuing its downward pace.


On the weekly chart, the Euro/US Dollar is currently testing a support zone formed by the lows of January (1.0480) and March (1.05160) this year. In the context of a clearly downward trend, this support may have a hard time halting the downward momentum. If this level is breached, it may pave the way for a further decline towards 1.0405 (the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the move from 0.9535 to 1.1275). Further declines could target 1.0368 (the high from August of last year). On the other hand, a bullish scenario for the Euro/US Dollar would require a break above 1.0600 (a psychological market level) and 1.0610 (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level). If these levels are breached, the pair could retest 1.0717 (the 100-day moving average) and the high from September 20th (1.0735). Before that, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.


Today, it is suggested to go long on the Euro near 1.0530, with a stop-loss at 1.0500 and targets at 1.0625 and 1.0640.






The information contained herein (1) is proprietary to BCR and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely; and, (4) does not constitute advice or a recommendation by BCR or its content providers in respect of the investment in financial instruments. Neither BCR or its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.


Published at 09-29-2023





差价合约交易因具有一定的风险性,可能不适合所有投资者。在与BCR交易前,请确保您阅读并已充分了解可能涉及到的相关风险。同时,请谨慎考虑您的投资目标,财务状况,投资需求与经验水平,并在必要时获得独立的专业意见。以上内容仅用于教育目的,不构成任何投资建议,对于因使用其中包含的信息而直接或间接造成的损失,百汇BCR不承担任何责任。BCR Co Pty Ltd (BCR Global) 受英属维京群岛金融服务委员会(BVIFSC)所监管,监管牌照号为 SIBA/L/19/1122


Daily Recommendation 28 Sep 2023

Published at 09-28-2023



On Wednesday, September 27th, the United States announced a 0.2% increase in durable goods orders, well above expectations and the previous figure, further highlighting the resilience of the U.S. economy. Buoyed by this data, the Dollar Index surged to a 10-month high of 106.83. Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, hawkish comments from officials continued to impact the markets, with even dovish Fed Governor Bauman and Boston Fed President Collins supporting further rate hikes. This continued to stimulate the strength of the U.S. dollar, with the Dollar Index reaching a peak of 106.30, a new high since December of the previous year. At this stage, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to change its stance easily unless economic data collectively weakens suddenly. However, it is challenging for the U.S. economy to remain healthy in a high-interest-rate environment, as it does not align with conventional economic logic. Additionally, if the U.S. government does indeed shut down, it could drag down consumer spending and lead to the Fed cutting interest rates earlier than expected. Currently, the future direction of the U.S. dollar will face more uncertainty. On the surface, the current hawkish attitude of the Federal Reserve is expected to provide continuous support for the U.S. dollar, but potential bearish factors for the U.S. dollar must also be guarded against. From a technical perspective, there are features that are similar to the above points – it looks like there is room for further growth, but there is strong corrective pressure.


From a technical perspective, as long as the Dollar Index remains above the recent support levels of 105.07 (near the midpoint of the Bollinger Bands) and the 10-day moving average of 105.57, the overall bullish pattern remains unchanged. The next targets for the bulls could be around 106.80, 107.20, and 107.99 (last November's high). However, the current technical indicator RSI (Relative Strength Index) is in the overbought zone (77.46), indicating a significant correction risk in the market. Investors need to pay attention to corrective signals from the above-mentioned indicators. If the bearish factors mentioned above materialize, the price may face a significant retracement. On the downside, important support levels to watch include the previous high in March at 105.88 and the midpoint of the recent uptrend channel (currently positioned near 105.07). If these supports are broken on the downside, more downside risk may be triggered towards the 104.60 level (September 20th low).


Today, it may be considered to go long on the Dollar Index near 106.45, with a stop-loss at 106.20 and targets at 106.85 and 106.95.




WTI Crude Oil


The recent consolidation in oil prices seems to have come to an end as crude oil inventories at the largest storage center in the United States have dropped to their lowest levels since July 2022. This has led to significant gains in crude oil prices, reaching new highs for the year. U.S. WTI crude oil spot prices closed at their highest level since August 2022, ending at $92.78 per barrel, with a gain of 3.14%. WTI crude oil underwent a V-shaped reversal midweek, steadily rising from a two-week low as expectations of supply constraints outweighed concerns about uncertain economic prospects that could dampen demand. WTI crude oil reclaimed the $90 mark. It is reported that Oman and Bahrain plan to expand their refining capacity, consuming more regional crude oil to produce diesel and other fuels for export. This will reduce daily Middle East crude oil exports by over 300,000 barrels, further tightening global oil supply. As European and American stock markets continue to decline, market risk sentiment is rising, which will exacerbate concerns among investors about the U.S. economy entering a recession, thereby limiting short-term upward pressure on oil prices. In the short term, there is a possibility of financial factors weighing on oil price adjustments, but with an expected supply shortfall of 3 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, it is anticipated that there is still room for oil prices to rise further. Currently, the oil market is at a crossroads between bullish and bearish forces, with $100 remaining the medium-term target in the market.


In the short term, WTI crude oil has seen trading battles around the $90 mark in the past two weeks, with four trading days closing below $90, indicating a balanced struggle between bulls and bears. Yesterday, short-term bulls in WTI crude oil showed signs of renewed upward momentum, reaching a recent high of $92.78 per barrel, and it cannot be ruled out that oil prices may enter a consolidation phase at these elevated levels. However, from a medium-term perspective, WTI crude oil has remained above the midpoint of the Bollinger Bands at $88.16 and the 21-day moving average at $87.85 since early September. This indicates a positive medium-term trend, and there may be further upside potential in the future. If WTI crude oil can once again stabilize above the $90 mark, caution should be exercised as it may challenge the recent high of $92.89 and the level of $96.94 (last August's high).


Today, it may be considered to go long on crude oil near $92.40, with a stop-loss at $92.00 and targets at $93.70 and $94.90.




Spot Gold


In the U.S. market on Wednesday, September 27th, due to the rise in the U.S. dollar, the price of gold fell to its lowest level in over six months at $1,972.50, marking a 1.31% intraday decline. This was primarily due to the market preparing for the prospect of long-term high interest rates. Spot gold remained under pressure, falling below the $1,900 level once again, for the first time since August 23rd, and overall displayed a downward trend. Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting last week, more Fed officials have been making hawkish statements regarding monetary rates, pushing the U.S. dollar to its highest level in ten months and exerting downward pressure on gold. Moreover, the Fed's stance on the need for interest rates to remain at high levels for an extended period has weighed heavily on gold, making its price movement challenging. Market participants do not expect a rate cut to occur so quickly unless the U.S. economy "deteriorates" by 2024. More likely, interest rates will remain high, which implies that gold prices may remain under pressure. On the other hand, in the December 13th Fed rate decision, there is a 59.4% chance that rates will remain unchanged, indicating that market participants do not believe there will be further rate hikes in 2023. This could benefit gold as it weakens the U.S. dollar, which could be a positive driver for gold prices.


From a technical standpoint, gold has experienced another wave of declines this week, breaking through all short-term and long-term moving averages, including the 10-day (1918.70), 100-day (1918.10), and 200-day (1927.70) moving averages, indicating a strong downward trend. At the same time, momentum indicators have turned slightly lower, just below the 100 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has steadily declined to around 30, but there are no signs of overselling exhaustion yet. In the short term, the price chart also supports a bearish trend for gold. Gold has significantly fallen below the 200-day moving average, and during the week, it broke through the psychological market level of 1900. Despite RSI being in oversold territory, it continues to trend downward. The initial target is estimated to test the August low of $1,884.90. Once below $1,884.90, gold is likely to continue testing $1,870.20 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement level from $1,804.80 to $2,081.90) and $1,849.30 (50% Fibonacci retracement level from $1,616.80 to $2,081.90). On the contrary, if gold manages to rise above the $1,900-$1,901 level, the next target may be $1,910.60 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level). Breaking through that level, attention should be paid to $1,917 (Tuesday's high), and the next level to watch is the 200-day moving average at $1,927.70.


Today, it may be considered to short gold before $1,876, with a stop-loss at $1,880 and targets at $1,860 and $1,855.






The latest release of the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August showed an increase, causing the AUD/USD to initially rise back above 0.64, reaching a daily high of 0.6410, before retracing below 0.64 to a nine-month low of 0.6330. The data's performance has reinforced the view that interest rates will remain at higher levels for an extended period. Australia's August CPI increased by 5.2% year-on-year, in line with expectations, while June and July CPIs were 5.4% and 4.9%, respectively. Although monthly CPI data tends to fluctuate significantly and may not accurately predict quarterly CPI performance, from the perspective of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the impact of quarterly CPI is typically more significant. At the same time, risk appetite has taken a backseat due to the surge in U.S. yields (the market increasingly believes that U.S. interest rates will remain high in the long term). Additionally, concerns about the Chinese economy and geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on market sentiment. Despite several support measures implemented by the government in recent months, these measures have yet to trigger a substantial improvement in sentiment.


From a technical chart perspective, the AUD/USD exhausted its upward momentum after reaching the important resistance level of the double top at 0.6521-0.6522 at the end of August and early September. Although the AUD/USD briefly spiked to 0.6511 last week, it lacked follow-through and retraced. Since it has not been able to break through the 0.6521-0.6522 area so far, the path of least resistance for the AUD/USD still leans towards consolidation or a downside bias. This may be due to the lack of upward momentum in the weekly time frame. Currently, attention can be focused on the recent low of 0.6357 (from the pullback low of 0.6521-0.6522). If the Australian dollar effectively breaks below the recent low of 0.6357 (calculated from last week's pullback at 0.6511), a broader downward trend may have formed, opening the door to the lows of November 2022 at 0.6272 and October at 0.6170. Conversely, if the AUD/USD quickly rebounds above 0.6400-0.6410 in the short term, it does not negate the possibility of the exchange rate retesting the resistance levels of 0.6485 (the downward resistance trendline originating from the July high of 0.6895) and the double top pattern at 0.6521-0.6522.


Today, it may be considered to go short on the Australian dollar before 0.6370, with a stop-loss at 0.6395 and targets at 0.6290 and 0.6275.






GBP/USD has fallen more than 4.5% this month to a six-month low of 1.2110, making it seem like it's on track for its worst month since August 2022. Currently, approximately 71% of retail traders are net long on GBP/USD. Such a majority of retail traders being bullish often suggests a bearish outlook for GBP/USD in the medium term. Moreover, long positions have increased by 3.29% since yesterday and by 12.79% since last week, indicating a stronger bearish sentiment. Presently, the Bank of England (BoE) has maintained a relatively dovish stance, which means that even slight economic setbacks in the UK could be viewed as reasons to pause interest rate hikes. The market believes that the BoE has completed its rate hike cycle. Weak growth, high inflation, and lower real interest rates are all negatively affecting the currency. If upcoming economic data reflects even more negative domestic growth in the UK than the market expects, the pound may face greater pressure.


Looking at recent trends, the pound has fallen for the sixth consecutive trading day, breaking below the 1.2200 level and hitting a six-month low of 1.2110. Currently, the exchange rate is trading slightly above 1.2100. The primary reasons for the relentless decline of the pound are the rising risk aversion in the market and renewed expectations of Fed rate hikes, which are boosting the US dollar index. If GBP/USD were to fall below 1.2120 (the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level from 1.1804 to 1.3143), the next levels to watch would be 1.2078 (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from 1.0354 to 1.3143), 1.2010 (the March 15th low), and 1.2000 (a psychological market level). On the other hand, from a different perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to a severely oversold level (18.98), so caution should be exercised as the exchange rate could rebound significantly toward the 10-day moving average at 1.2266, with the next target being 1.2388 (the Bollinger Bands' midline).


Today, it is suggested to go short on the British pound before 1.2160, with a stop-loss at 1.2190 and targets at 1.2080 and 1.2070.






Despite the statement from Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso on Tuesday that the government is "closely watching the exchange rate with a sense of urgency," it failed to stem the weakness of the Japanese yen. Midweek, the market brushed aside verbal warnings from the Japanese government, pushing the USD/JPY rate close to the recent high of 149.70. As more Federal Reserve officials support a policy of higher interest rates in the long term, yields on U.S. 10-year and 30-year bonds have reached their respective historical highs. The widening gap between U.S. and Japanese bond yields continues to drive arbitrage trading. The only factor that can potentially halt the yen's depreciation is whether the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will intervene in the market as it did last year. Until intervention occurs, traders are likely to cautiously push the USD/JPY higher. If the exchange rate reaches last year's warning level of 150 without action from the Japanese government, it indicates that this year's warning level may need to be raised. It's worth noting that from a pure technical perspective, signs of a bearish divergence in technical indicators are becoming increasingly evident, so the risk of a significant pullback in USD/JPY should be monitored.


Regarding the technical outlook for USD/JPY, as the exchange rate steadily approaches the 150 level, investors are watching for intervention risk from Japan. USD/JPY saw a midweek oscillation to the upside, breaking through 149.00 and hitting an 11-month high of 149.70. Besides the support from the rise in the U.S. dollar index due to renewed expectations of Fed rate hikes, the significant divergence in monetary policies between the U.S. and Japan continues to support the exchange rate. Additionally, dovish remarks from Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda have played a role in favoring the U.S. dollar. However, technical indicators such as the RSI and Stochastic Index are currently in overbought territory, and the MACD indicator has crossed below the signal line, signaling the need to be cautious about the risk of a USD/JPY retracement. The current support levels to watch are first at 147.82 (Bollinger Bands' midline), followed by 146.01 (Bollinger Bands' lower channel line) and 145.52 (50-day moving average). The current resistance levels are expected to be around 150 (a psychological market level) and 151.94 (last year's October high).


Today, it is suggested to go long on the U.S. dollar before 149.35, with a stop-loss at 148.90 and targets at 150.20 and 150.40.






This week, U.S. economic data continues to be strong, further bolstering the strength of the U.S. dollar exchange rate. Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari stated on Tuesday that there is a significant probability of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, but there is also a 40% chance that the Fed needs to "substantially" raise interest rates to curb inflation. The prospect of a soft landing for the U.S. economy is currently driving the U.S. dollar's continued strength. In contrast, the Eurozone is experiencing the opposite scenario with economic contraction, and interest rates appear to have reached their terminal values. As a result, the euro is struggling to find macroeconomic support at this stage, and under the continued pressure of a strong U.S. dollar, the euro's downward trajectory is likely to continue. The key support level is now at 1.05, and if breached, it could trigger a new wave of declines.


Since reaching a high of 1.1275 in mid-July, the EUR/USD exchange rate has been on a strong downward trend, reaching an eight-month low of 1.0488 yesterday. It remains slightly below the lower channel line of the Bollinger Bands at 1.0535. More importantly, the currency pair is currently in a "death cross" bearish pattern. The key resistance levels for any rebound are the Bollinger Bands' midline at 1.0711 and the descending trendline extending downward since mid-July at 1.0700. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below the oversold level of 30 to 24.90. Therefore, as sellers target the recent strength of the U.S. dollar, the currency pair may continue to decline. Targets to watch for include 1.05 (a psychological market level), and if this level is breached, it may pave the way for further declines towards 1.0405 (the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from 0.9535 to 1.1275). On the upside, the first levels of resistance to observe are 1.0600 and 1.0610 (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level). If these levels are broken, it may open the door to challenges at 1.0700 and 1.0711.


Today, it is recommended to go short on the euro before 1.0530, with a stop-loss at 1.0560, and targets at 1.0445 and 1.0440.






The information contained herein (1) is proprietary to BCR and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely; and, (4) does not constitute advice or a recommendation by BCR or its content providers in respect of the investment in financial instruments. Neither BCR or its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.



Join us now and explore more

Sign up in minutes and fund your account in seconds

Terms & Conditions Privacy Policy

2023 © - All Rights Reserved by Bacera Co Pty Ltd

Risk Disclosure: Trading Contracts for Difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. By trading Contracts for Difference, you could sustain a loss of all your deposited funds. BCR makes no recommendations as to the merits of any financial product referred to on our website, emails, or related material(s). The information contained on our website, emails, or related material(s) does not take into consideration prospective clients' trading objectives, financial situations, or investment needs. Before deciding to trade the Contracts for Difference offered by BCR, please ensure that you have read our Product Disclosure Statement Financial Services Guide Target Market Determination , and have sought independent professional financial advice to ensure you fully understand the risk involved before trading.

"BCR" is a registered business name of Bacera Co Pty Ltd, Australian Company Number 130 877 137, Australian Financial Services Licence Number 328794.

The information on this site is not directed at residents of any particular country outside of Australia and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.